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  #1  
Old 07-27-2010, 09:48 PM
drake.starfall drake.starfall is offline
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Lightbulb Risk meter and high risk warning

Put risk meter somewhere near your character wounds. This meter could be bar from 0 to 100% that would mean how probable is that you die in you current location with your current wounds. It should be worst case probability - this mean that you encounter highest lvl boss or elite boss (if possible in current location) with worst TOAD combination.

In setting, there could be something like risk warning threshold, were you could enter number of % above wich you will be asked if you really want to explore more when you try to explore.

This could be in advanteges for normal characters. Hardcore characters could gain it for free when they reach lvl 50 becouse they cant get character credits for free and its very usefull for them.

This could save life of many hardcore characters: death by missclicking, double exploring (you hit explore again when page is loading) and so on. It would be usefull for normal character too. It could safe a lot of time if I wouldnt have to calculate the risk for myself.

If anything is unclear from my english, let me know and I will try to upgrade this post.
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  #2  
Old 07-31-2010, 07:19 PM
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nebsmith nebsmith is offline
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I don't think this is possible, what with the dice rolls being random.

For example :

I was just out exploring and fought a boss with 4 lives and a 50% SC, I won without taking a single wound.

Ten minutes earlier I was in an ordinary battle, an opponent with 1 life and a 58% SC, I took eleven wounds and nearly died before winning on the 12th roll.

It's true that as you fight at higher levels and have more wounds going in to the fight you do get more likely to lose, but I don't think a risk meter could take into account the extreme things that sometimes happen with the dice.

I mean, technically, with random dice, any battle could be lost.
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  #3  
Old 08-02-2010, 06:55 PM
Ethdred Ethdred is offline
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Yeah - I think one of the advantages of having played the game a lot, which can't be bought with credits, is the feel for when you need to go back to DT. People would just complain if they were told that there was a 1 in 10000 chance of dying in the next battle, and then they die. Still, it would teach you a lot about probability
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  #4  
Old 08-02-2010, 07:05 PM
drake.starfall drake.starfall is offline
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Thanks for response nebsmith. I'm sure that it's possible to measure the risk of dying by counting the probability of death.

I will give you some examples to clarify what I mean:
Let's think about fighting a boss with 4 lives and a 50% SC. How many lives you should have to safely win this fight? With 1 live, you have only 6,25% chance of survival. So it's extremely risky, but it happens (on 1 boss fight out of 20). With 10 lives you have 95% of survival, so you will die in 1 boss fight out of 20. That's ok for normal character, but not for hardcore. With 15 lives you have 99.62% of survival. So you will die 1 out of 250 boss fights). Thats ok, even for hardcore character if you don't want to play it for longer then 1 year. If you want your hardcore character to live longer then you, then you should have 20 and more lives to fight this boss.

How I get to this numbers? I count it with help of binomial probability distribution, that can be calculated online on: http://stattrek.com/Tables/Binomial.aspx
Probability of success on a single trial is SC/100 (0.5 for 50% SC)
Number of trials = number of character lives + number of monster lives - 1
Number of successes = number of monster lives
Cumulative Probability: P(X >= number of moster lives) = probability of survival

I just don't want to count this every time I lvl up my hardcore character. That's why I think something like risk meter would be usefull.
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  #5  
Old 08-03-2010, 03:06 PM
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nebsmith nebsmith is offline
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I see where you're going with the maths to find the risk, but it doesn't change my point. Whatever equations you use and whatever numbers you put into them it can only tell you about the behaviour of the whole system over extended periods. I don't think it can tell you anything useful about the next encounter, which is a single event and could be one of the outliers. Unless a Risk Meter could take into account the actual encounter about to occur, but I think that would be unfair prior knowledge.

I think all you can do is look at the highest level boss you might encounter add in a -12 on the TOAD comparison and decide if you want to risk a bad run on the dice with the resulting SC and your current wounds.

I do this myself, making a rough calculation based on the first encounter in a sublocation. If I don't like the result I bail out, but my decision is based on both the numbers and a feel for how things are running. There are short term good and bad runs on the dice but I don't know if these can be identified until you are actually in them.

I agree that you can calculate the risk of dying a number of ways (that's basically what the SC tells you) some more precise than others, but the game mechanics are still going to throw the odd scare into you.
I got jumped by a 7% Goo boss yesterday when I had 22 wounds versus his 5, my own fault for not paying attention, but I thought the worst I'd get hit with was in the high 20's. I'd neglected to consider the equipment comparison, I got slaughtered. If I'd had, or used, a more precise way of calculating the risk I might have avoided that encounter, on the other had I might have decided it was too unlikely and gone into it anyway.

What I'm saying is, whatever you calculate, you still have to make a judgement of what is an acceptable risk/reward strategy for your particular circumstances. A more precise Risk Meter would help with that decision, but I fear it may only help you go wrong with confidence.
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  #6  
Old 08-03-2010, 04:01 PM
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DarkGwyddion DarkGwyddion is offline
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I think the metre is an interesting idea, but as nebsmith sort of said - it's your own personal call.

Part of this game is coming to understand what risks you can and can't take. I don't do any rough math when I wander into a sublocation (that is, I don't calculate my "worst" survival chance), but I do consider how hard of a time I have in the first encounter or two. It's not something that easy at first - I'll admit that. But for me, once I've gained a sense of things I tend to stick with them.

Except when it comes to my Cavalier and I push things (my own form of taunting the RNG, I suppose) beyond what is normally "sane".
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